| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1 | Right>Left | 0.00217016 | 3905 | 3656 | 0.007802 |
| 1a | Right>Left | 0.002337957 | 3906 | 3659 | 0.007739 |
| 1b | Right>Left | 0.000633365 | 3914 | 3633 | 0.008805 |
| 1c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.003562674 | 4234 | 3989 | 0.007677 |
| 1c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000712794 | 4280 | 3989 | 0.009118 |
| 2 | Up>Left | 0.004039368 | 3754 | 3527 | 0.007113 |
| 2 | Down>Left | 0.000802394 | 3798 | 3527 | 0.008491 |
| 2a | Up>Left | 0.006633826 | 3771 | 3558 | 0.006674 |
| 2b | Up>Left | 0.003408032 | 3761 | 3529 | 0.007269 |
| 2b | Down>Left | 0.000904997 | 3797 | 3529 | 0.008397 |
| 2c | Left>Up | 2.91183E-06 | 4136 | 3733 | 0.012627 |
| 2c | Left>Down | 5.83894E-05 | 4136 | 3792 | 0.010779 |
| 2c | Right>Up | 0.00027002 | 4039 | 3733 | 0.009588 |
| 2c | Right>Down | 0.002717259 | 4039 | 3792 | 0.007739 |
| 3 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.005687974 | 4617 | 4376 | 0.007551 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 6.02383E-30 | 3674 | 2767 | 0.028419 |
| 3c | Up>Right | 0.000173264 | 3812 | 3505 | 0.009619 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 2.29956E-38 | 3812 | 2767 | 0.032743 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 6.00258E-21 | 3505 | 2767 | 0.023124 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.57184E-26 | 5068 | 4056 | 0.031709 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 8.67804E-27 | 5068 | 4051 | 0.031866 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.03522E-22 | 4982 | 4056 | 0.029015 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 5.99004E-23 | 4982 | 4051 | 0.029171 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 4.45851E-10 | 3555 | 3056 | 0.015635 |
| 3d | Up>Right | 0.004178995 | 3655 | 3432 | 0.006987 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 1.39154E-13 | 3655 | 3056 | 0.018769 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 1.6055E-06 | 3432 | 3056 | 0.011781 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.57695E-05 | 4773 | 4374 | 0.012502 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.41979E-08 | 4773 | 4245 | 0.016544 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.34796E-06 | 4825 | 4374 | 0.014131 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 5.94907E-10 | 4825 | 4245 | 0.018173 |
| 4c | Up>Left | 0.005240973 | 3805 | 3584 | 0.006925 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 1.00885E-23 | 3584 | 2788 | 0.024941 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 0.000268317 | 3805 | 3508 | 0.009306 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 2.32579E-36 | 3805 | 2788 | 0.031866 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 5.88569E-20 | 3508 | 2788 | 0.02256 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.19475E-18 | 5015 | 4190 | 0.02585 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.28622E-24 | 5015 | 4057 | 0.030017 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.25257E-16 | 4968 | 4190 | 0.024377 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 4.53399E-22 | 4968 | 4057 | 0.028545 |
| 4d | Up>Left | 0.001269078 | 3668 | 3413 | 0.00799 |
| 4d | Left>Down | 0.001209897 | 3413 | 3166 | 0.007739 |
| 4d | Up>Right | 0.002273827 | 3668 | 3428 | 0.00752 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 6.679E-10 | 3668 | 3166 | 0.015729 |
| 4d | Right>Down | 0.000653295 | 3428 | 3166 | 0.008209 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.223E-06 | 4825 | 4391 | 0.013599 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.21453E-08 | 4825 | 4312 | 0.016074 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000397868 | 4712 | 4391 | 0.010058 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.32941E-05 | 4712 | 4312 | 0.012533 |
| 5 | Up>Down | 0.000263572 | 3356 | 3077 | 0.008742 |
| 5 | Right>Down | 0.000360985 | 3349 | 3077 | 0.008523 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.00209252 | 4886 | 4606 | 0.008773 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.000922216 | 4886 | 4582 | 0.009525 |
| 5b | Left>Down | 0.00422204 | 3254 | 3044 | 0.00658 |
| 5b | Up>Down | 4.3398E-05 | 3359 | 3044 | 0.00987 |
| 5b | Right>Down | 5.30915E-05 | 3355 | 3044 | 0.009745 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.00107468 | 4833 | 4535 | 0.009337 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000698115 | 4924 | 4611 | 0.009807 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.30452E-05 | 4924 | 4535 | 0.012189 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 0.000170231 | 3400 | 3110 | 0.009087 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 2.53083E-05 | 3400 | 3073 | 0.010246 |
| 6 | Down>Right | 0.002600569 | 3297 | 3073 | 0.007019 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.3033E-05 | 4971 | 4572 | 0.012502 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.69977E-05 | 4978 | 4572 | 0.012721 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.41339E-06 | 4971 | 4514 | 0.014319 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.0012E-06 | 4978 | 4514 | 0.014539 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 0.000170231 | 3400 | 3110 | 0.009087 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 2.53083E-05 | 3400 | 3073 | 0.010246 |
| 6a | Down>Right | 0.002600569 | 3297 | 3073 | 0.007019 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.3033E-05 | 4971 | 4572 | 0.012502 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.69977E-05 | 4978 | 4572 | 0.012721 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.41339E-06 | 4971 | 4514 | 0.014319 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.0012E-06 | 4978 | 4514 | 0.014539 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 0.000170231 | 3400 | 3110 | 0.009087 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 2.53083E-05 | 3400 | 3073 | 0.010246 |
| 6b | Down>Right | 0.002600569 | 3297 | 3073 | 0.007019 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.3033E-05 | 4971 | 4572 | 0.012502 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.69977E-05 | 4978 | 4572 | 0.012721 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.41339E-06 | 4971 | 4514 | 0.014319 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.0012E-06 | 4978 | 4514 | 0.014539 |
| 7 | Up>Down | 0.006902888 | 3300 | 3102 | 0.006204 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.00410882 | 4932 | 4672 | 0.008147 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000566595 | 4932 | 4613 | 0.009995 |
| 10 | Up>Left | 0.000142118 | 3709 | 3402 | 0.009619 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 1.15676E-19 | 3402 | 2699 | 0.022027 |
| 10 | Up>Right | 0.000142118 | 3709 | 3402 | 0.009619 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 7.14669E-37 | 3709 | 2699 | 0.031647 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 1.15676E-19 | 3402 | 2699 | 0.022027 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 5.19168E-46 | 5384 | 4010 | 0.043052 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 5.81093E-49 | 5384 | 3968 | 0.044368 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.75197E-43 | 5341 | 4010 | 0.041705 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.37645E-46 | 5341 | 3968 | 0.043021 |
| 11 | Up>Left | 0.000223925 | 3393 | 3109 | 0.008899 |
| 11 | Up>Right | 0.007606674 | 3393 | 3195 | 0.006204 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 8.8558E-11 | 5083 | 4459 | 0.019552 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 4.05474E-05 | 4840 | 4459 | 0.011938 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.20935E-08 | 5083 | 4535 | 0.017171 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000844895 | 4840 | 4535 | 0.009557 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.007560434 | 5083 | 4840 | 0.007614 |
| 11a | Up>Left | 0.000158096 | 3411 | 3119 | 0.009149 |
| 11a | Up>Right | 0.001744049 | 3411 | 3173 | 0.007457 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.14421E-07 | 4960 | 4457 | 0.015761 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.74477E-08 | 4994 | 4457 | 0.016826 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.8113E-06 | 4960 | 4528 | 0.013536 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 9.38707E-07 | 4994 | 4528 | 0.014601 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 4.50456E-08 | 3046 | 2642 | 0.012659 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 2.63146E-07 | 3046 | 2666 | 0.011907 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 7.70124E-07 | 3004 | 2642 | 0.011343 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 3.78992E-06 | 3004 | 2666 | 0.010591 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 1.05535E-10 | 5596 | 4943 | 0.020461 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 2.37946E-16 | 5596 | 4769 | 0.025913 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000445708 | 5596 | 5249 | 0.010873 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.00125831 | 5249 | 4943 | 0.009588 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 8.4829E-07 | 5249 | 4769 | 0.01504 |