| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1 | Up>Left | 0.002172017 | 3722 | 3479 | 0.008095 |
| 1a | Up>Left | 0.004435089 | 3710 | 3487 | 0.007429 |
| 1b | Up>Left | 0.003765959 | 3690 | 3463 | 0.007563 |
| 1b | Down>Left | 0.007600028 | 3669 | 3463 | 0.006863 |
| 1c | Left>Down | 0.008112929 | 3704 | 3499 | 0.00683 |
| 1c | Up>Right | 0.006021883 | 3740 | 3525 | 0.007163 |
| 1c | Up>Down | 0.002393533 | 3740 | 3499 | 0.008029 |
| 2c | Left>Up | 6.03884E-06 | 3861 | 3485 | 0.012527 |
| 2c | Left>Down | 1.83455E-09 | 3861 | 3359 | 0.016724 |
| 2c | Right>Up | 0.00084857 | 3753 | 3485 | 0.008929 |
| 2c | Right>Down | 1.57149E-06 | 3753 | 3359 | 0.013126 |
| 2c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.007401843 | 3963 | 3748 | 0.007163 |
| 2c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000530009 | 4069 | 3778 | 0.009695 |
| 2c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.000147409 | 4069 | 3748 | 0.010694 |
| 2d | Left>Down | 2.31813E-05 | 3740 | 3395 | 0.011494 |
| 2d | Right>Down | 1.48957E-06 | 3792 | 3395 | 0.013226 |
| 2d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000789492 | 4039 | 3759 | 0.009328 |
| 2d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.001356631 | 4039 | 3773 | 0.008862 |
| 3b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.005218962 | 4365 | 4128 | 0.007896 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 8.43794E-39 | 3465 | 2467 | 0.033249 |
| 3c | Up>Right | 8.28651E-06 | 3636 | 3277 | 0.01196 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 3.83662E-51 | 3636 | 2467 | 0.038946 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 5.54982E-27 | 3277 | 2467 | 0.026986 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.99451E-32 | 4817 | 3732 | 0.036147 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 8.8083E-26 | 4817 | 3846 | 0.032349 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 5.12149E-30 | 4776 | 3732 | 0.034781 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 6.58137E-24 | 4776 | 3846 | 0.030983 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 3.43395E-11 | 3290 | 2781 | 0.016958 |
| 3d | Up>Right | 0.0001006 | 3430 | 3128 | 0.010061 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 9.38458E-17 | 3430 | 2781 | 0.021622 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 3.36065E-06 | 3128 | 2781 | 0.011561 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.00716E-09 | 4616 | 4073 | 0.01809 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 7.27853E-10 | 4616 | 4052 | 0.01879 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.4512E-10 | 4646 | 4073 | 0.01909 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.00376E-10 | 4646 | 4052 | 0.019789 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 1.80173E-22 | 3452 | 2693 | 0.025287 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 0.001016395 | 3544 | 3288 | 0.008529 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 2.14947E-27 | 3544 | 2693 | 0.028352 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 7.53679E-15 | 3288 | 2693 | 0.019823 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.89419E-15 | 4608 | 3883 | 0.024154 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 5.4962E-17 | 4608 | 3845 | 0.02542 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.56254E-19 | 4703 | 3883 | 0.027319 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 8.71289E-21 | 4703 | 3845 | 0.028585 |
| 4d | Up>Right | 0.000758237 | 3387 | 3130 | 0.008562 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 2.3961E-06 | 3387 | 3020 | 0.012227 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000806411 | 4434 | 4141 | 0.009761 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.002751673 | 4483 | 4223 | 0.008662 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.000120132 | 4483 | 4141 | 0.011394 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.007179405 | 4568 | 4336 | 0.007729 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 0.000185805 | 3168 | 2890 | 0.009262 |
| 6 | Down>Left | 0.001384885 | 3123 | 2890 | 0.007763 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 0.001689868 | 3168 | 2938 | 0.007663 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.007872249 | 4612 | 4382 | 0.007663 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.000636199 | 4604 | 4299 | 0.010161 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000474106 | 4612 | 4299 | 0.010428 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 0.000185805 | 3168 | 2890 | 0.009262 |
| 6a | Down>Left | 0.001384885 | 3123 | 2890 | 0.007763 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 0.001689868 | 3168 | 2938 | 0.007663 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.007872249 | 4612 | 4382 | 0.007663 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.000636199 | 4604 | 4299 | 0.010161 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000474106 | 4612 | 4299 | 0.010428 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 0.000185805 | 3168 | 2890 | 0.009262 |
| 6b | Down>Left | 0.001384885 | 3123 | 2890 | 0.007763 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 0.001689868 | 3168 | 2938 | 0.007663 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.007872249 | 4612 | 4382 | 0.007663 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.000636199 | 4604 | 4299 | 0.010161 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000474106 | 4612 | 4299 | 0.010428 |
| 7 | Up>Down | 0.000490714 | 3146 | 2889 | 0.008562 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001082933 | 4618 | 4327 | 0.009695 |
| 10 | Up>Left | 2.59842E-06 | 3539 | 3165 | 0.01246 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 2.07022E-15 | 3165 | 2570 | 0.019823 |
| 10 | Up>Right | 0.000186956 | 3539 | 3245 | 0.009795 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 1.14157E-35 | 3539 | 2570 | 0.032283 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 4.43725E-19 | 3245 | 2570 | 0.022488 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.54919E-41 | 5004 | 3747 | 0.041878 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 6.23473E-40 | 5004 | 3771 | 0.041078 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 7.46253E-40 | 4975 | 3747 | 0.040912 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.77489E-38 | 4975 | 3771 | 0.040112 |
| 11 | Down>Left | 4.74193E-05 | 3248 | 2940 | 0.010261 |
| 11 | Down>Right | 0.001986091 | 3248 | 3019 | 0.007629 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.12272E-12 | 4840 | 4173 | 0.022221 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 3.53391E-05 | 4545 | 4173 | 0.012393 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 5.23722E-12 | 4840 | 4193 | 0.021555 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 8.65349E-05 | 4545 | 4193 | 0.011727 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.00120259 | 4840 | 4545 | 0.009828 |
| 11a | Down>Left | 0.003005418 | 3171 | 2955 | 0.007196 |
| 11a | Down>Right | 0.003005418 | 3171 | 2955 | 0.007196 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.52452E-07 | 4712 | 4227 | 0.016158 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.53403E-06 | 4668 | 4227 | 0.014692 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 2.72161E-08 | 4712 | 4198 | 0.017124 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 3.14605E-07 | 4668 | 4198 | 0.015658 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 6.50018E-10 | 2903 | 2458 | 0.014825 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 2.01503E-10 | 2903 | 2445 | 0.015259 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 1.19323E-06 | 2801 | 2458 | 0.011427 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 4.71611E-07 | 2801 | 2445 | 0.01186 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 2.19387E-05 | 5241 | 4830 | 0.013693 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.49431E-16 | 5241 | 4449 | 0.026386 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000243574 | 5241 | 4889 | 0.011727 |
| 12 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.98353E-05 | 4830 | 4449 | 0.012693 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 2.7632E-06 | 4889 | 4449 | 0.014659 |