| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 2b | Down>Right | 0.00461739 | 3715 | 3493 | 0.00729 |
| 2c | Left>Up | 0.000161627 | 3897 | 3585 | 0.010246 |
| 2c | Left>Down | 1.7567E-09 | 3897 | 3392 | 0.016584 |
| 2c | Right>Up | 0.001186035 | 3848 | 3585 | 0.008637 |
| 2c | Right>Down | 4.41978E-08 | 3848 | 3392 | 0.014975 |
| 2c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001515253 | 4007 | 3745 | 0.008604 |
| 2c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 7.61281E-05 | 4081 | 3745 | 0.011034 |
| 2d | Left>Down | 4.83211E-05 | 3838 | 3503 | 0.011001 |
| 2d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.002181436 | 4066 | 3812 | 0.008341 |
| 2d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.006073988 | 4066 | 3842 | 0.007356 |
| 2d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.003288864 | 4054 | 3812 | 0.007947 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 7.18361E-25 | 3458 | 2658 | 0.026272 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 1.07255E-29 | 3544 | 2658 | 0.029096 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 4.37137E-25 | 3462 | 2658 | 0.026403 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.41721E-43 | 4901 | 3634 | 0.041608 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 6.17624E-29 | 4901 | 3862 | 0.03412 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.40459E-45 | 4932 | 3634 | 0.042626 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.79077E-30 | 4932 | 3862 | 0.035138 |
| 3c | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.004370249 | 3862 | 3634 | 0.007487 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 6.41415E-08 | 3313 | 2896 | 0.013694 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 1.93891E-11 | 3422 | 2896 | 0.017274 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 9.49465E-07 | 3271 | 2896 | 0.012315 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 8.55339E-16 | 4684 | 3944 | 0.024301 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.273E-10 | 4684 | 4108 | 0.018916 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.2283E-21 | 4813 | 3944 | 0.028538 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 4.4122E-14 | 4813 | 4108 | 0.023152 |
| 4 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001694505 | 4543 | 4267 | 0.009064 |
| 4 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.59202E-05 | 4661 | 4267 | 0.012939 |
| 4 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.006607917 | 4500 | 4267 | 0.007652 |
| 4a | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.007849819 | 4529 | 4301 | 0.007487 |
| 4a | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000352085 | 4622 | 4301 | 0.010542 |
| 4a | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.005681579 | 4540 | 4301 | 0.007849 |
| 4b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.002298557 | 4539 | 4272 | 0.008768 |
| 4b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.06571E-05 | 4675 | 4272 | 0.013234 |
| 4c | Left>Right | 0.003949544 | 3509 | 3289 | 0.007225 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 3.42939E-24 | 3509 | 2714 | 0.026108 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 0.002754755 | 3519 | 3289 | 0.007553 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 1.01394E-24 | 3519 | 2714 | 0.026436 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 6.12654E-14 | 3289 | 2714 | 0.018883 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 2.25314E-27 | 4762 | 3767 | 0.032675 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.79218E-17 | 4762 | 3974 | 0.025878 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.50001E-35 | 4917 | 3767 | 0.037766 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 7.65674E-24 | 4917 | 3974 | 0.030968 |
| 4d | Left>Down | 8.69757E-06 | 3380 | 3035 | 0.01133 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 1.94977E-05 | 3365 | 3035 | 0.010837 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.72395E-05 | 4492 | 4107 | 0.012643 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.001547908 | 4492 | 4215 | 0.009097 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.52501E-09 | 4655 | 4107 | 0.017996 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.56452E-06 | 4655 | 4215 | 0.014449 |
| 5 | Up>Down | 0.002062485 | 3190 | 2964 | 0.007422 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000582254 | 4653 | 4344 | 0.010147 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.01317E-05 | 4704 | 4344 | 0.011822 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.004090939 | 4704 | 4450 | 0.008341 |
| 5b | Up>Down | 0.000875901 | 3214 | 2967 | 0.008111 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 8.62711E-05 | 4671 | 4314 | 0.011724 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.004368845 | 4671 | 4420 | 0.008243 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.16414E-05 | 4717 | 4314 | 0.013234 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.000977856 | 4717 | 4420 | 0.009753 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 2.6599E-06 | 3221 | 2865 | 0.011691 |
| 6 | Down>Left | 0.00013118 | 3149 | 2865 | 0.009326 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 0.005673474 | 3221 | 3020 | 0.006601 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000272365 | 4777 | 4444 | 0.010936 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.002548645 | 4713 | 4444 | 0.008834 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 3.19119E-08 | 4777 | 4262 | 0.016912 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.01221E-06 | 4713 | 4262 | 0.014811 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 2.6599E-06 | 3221 | 2865 | 0.011691 |
| 6a | Down>Left | 0.00013118 | 3149 | 2865 | 0.009326 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 0.005673474 | 3221 | 3020 | 0.006601 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000272365 | 4777 | 4444 | 0.010936 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.002548645 | 4713 | 4444 | 0.008834 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 3.19119E-08 | 4777 | 4262 | 0.016912 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.01221E-06 | 4713 | 4262 | 0.014811 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 2.6599E-06 | 3221 | 2865 | 0.011691 |
| 6b | Down>Left | 0.00013118 | 3149 | 2865 | 0.009326 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 0.005673474 | 3221 | 3020 | 0.006601 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000272365 | 4777 | 4444 | 0.010936 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.002548645 | 4713 | 4444 | 0.008834 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 3.19119E-08 | 4777 | 4262 | 0.016912 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.01221E-06 | 4713 | 4262 | 0.014811 |
| 6c | Right>Left | 0.002092625 | 3172 | 2947 | 0.007389 |
| 7 | Up>Down | 0.00016457 | 3181 | 2900 | 0.009228 |
| 7 | Right>Down | 0.001191793 | 3137 | 2900 | 0.007783 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.0014789 | 4676 | 4392 | 0.009326 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000749197 | 4676 | 4373 | 0.00995 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 5.97898E-05 | 4761 | 4392 | 0.012118 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.56226E-05 | 4761 | 4373 | 0.012742 |
| 7b | Up>Down | 0.003434381 | 3153 | 2941 | 0.006962 |
| 7b | Right>Down | 0.006184925 | 3137 | 2941 | 0.006437 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.003504805 | 4636 | 4379 | 0.00844 |
| 7b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.002383718 | 4712 | 4441 | 0.0089 |
| 7b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.000248486 | 4712 | 4379 | 0.010936 |
| 10 | Up>Left | 2.48763E-05 | 3558 | 3223 | 0.011001 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 1.04722E-19 | 3223 | 2539 | 0.022462 |
| 10 | Up>Right | 0.000403782 | 3558 | 3280 | 0.009129 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 2.51575E-39 | 3558 | 2539 | 0.033464 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 1.31653E-22 | 3280 | 2539 | 0.024334 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 6.15494E-45 | 5140 | 3815 | 0.043513 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.22359E-45 | 5140 | 3805 | 0.043841 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.95669E-42 | 5091 | 3815 | 0.041903 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.0407E-42 | 5091 | 3805 | 0.042232 |
| 11 | Up>Right | 0.002768558 | 3198 | 2979 | 0.007192 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 6.21235E-11 | 4895 | 4278 | 0.020262 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 2.03879E-05 | 4667 | 4278 | 0.012775 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.17243E-10 | 4895 | 4287 | 0.019967 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 3.09013E-05 | 4667 | 4287 | 0.012479 |
| 11a | Up>Right | 0.00023428 | 3229 | 2953 | 0.009064 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.97806E-07 | 4780 | 4296 | 0.015894 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 4.18236E-06 | 4720 | 4296 | 0.013924 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.92584E-06 | 4780 | 4338 | 0.014515 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 3.11708E-05 | 4720 | 4338 | 0.012545 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 8.68558E-11 | 2878 | 2413 | 0.01527 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 8.54471E-09 | 2878 | 2465 | 0.013563 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 1.64751E-11 | 2897 | 2413 | 0.015894 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 1.94272E-09 | 2897 | 2465 | 0.014187 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 5.78122E-05 | 5394 | 5000 | 0.012939 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.10149E-16 | 5394 | 4589 | 0.026436 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 5.26347E-09 | 5394 | 4815 | 0.019014 |
| 12 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.40993E-05 | 5000 | 4589 | 0.013497 |