| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1c | Left>Right | 0.004885461 | 3803 | 3580 | 0.007264 |
| 2c | Left>Up | 9.34013E-10 | 3773 | 3268 | 0.016449 |
| 2c | Down>Left | 3.72911E-05 | 4126 | 3773 | 0.011498 |
| 2c | Right>Up | 1.85312E-07 | 3693 | 3268 | 0.013843 |
| 2c | Down>Up | 9.55516E-24 | 4126 | 3268 | 0.027947 |
| 2c | Down>Right | 5.12747E-07 | 4126 | 3693 | 0.014104 |
| 2c | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.1339E-16 | 4321 | 3597 | 0.023582 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Up-Left | 2.45287E-15 | 4293 | 3597 | 0.02267 |
| 2c | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.85653E-15 | 4321 | 3630 | 0.022507 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Up-Right | 4.97656E-14 | 4293 | 3630 | 0.021595 |
| 2d | Down>Left | 0.00282051 | 3944 | 3701 | 0.007915 |
| 2d | Down>Up | 2.32189E-07 | 3944 | 3508 | 0.014201 |
| 2d | Down>Right | 0.000987572 | 3944 | 3673 | 0.008827 |
| 2d | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.002699991 | 4098 | 3849 | 0.00811 |
| 2d | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.00076772 | 4133 | 3849 | 0.009251 |
| 2d | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.00033736 | 4098 | 3795 | 0.009869 |
| 2d | Down-Left>Up-Right | 7.67384E-05 | 4133 | 3795 | 0.011009 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 3.41544E-28 | 3526 | 2665 | 0.028045 |
| 3c | Up>Right | 0.001829022 | 3589 | 3346 | 0.007915 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 6.95391E-32 | 3589 | 2665 | 0.030097 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 8.17367E-19 | 3346 | 2665 | 0.022182 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.67534E-29 | 4908 | 3858 | 0.034201 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 2.46137E-29 | 4908 | 3861 | 0.034103 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.63863E-31 | 4948 | 3858 | 0.035504 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.44029E-31 | 4948 | 3861 | 0.035406 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 9.79701E-09 | 3380 | 2933 | 0.01456 |
| 3d | Up>Right | 3.1373E-05 | 3545 | 3215 | 0.010749 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 1.51621E-14 | 3545 | 2933 | 0.019934 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 0.000168966 | 3215 | 2933 | 0.009185 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.88231E-07 | 4663 | 4197 | 0.015179 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 9.42016E-11 | 4663 | 4067 | 0.019413 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.80998E-08 | 4701 | 4197 | 0.016416 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 6.75899E-12 | 4701 | 4067 | 0.020651 |
| 4 | Up>Right | 0.007559314 | 3286 | 3091 | 0.006352 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 1.19141E-28 | 3496 | 2632 | 0.028142 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 0.00408855 | 3603 | 3381 | 0.007231 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 4.04019E-35 | 3603 | 2632 | 0.031628 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 2.26068E-22 | 3381 | 2632 | 0.024397 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.3185E-22 | 4811 | 3904 | 0.029543 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.04146E-19 | 4811 | 3980 | 0.027068 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.4075E-26 | 4894 | 3904 | 0.032247 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.50103E-22 | 4894 | 3980 | 0.029771 |
| 4d | Left>Down | 4.42255E-07 | 3328 | 2938 | 0.012703 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 1.24015E-08 | 3382 | 2938 | 0.014462 |
| 4d | Right>Down | 2.47589E-08 | 3372 | 2938 | 0.014136 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.00527E-05 | 4587 | 4216 | 0.012084 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.19115E-05 | 4587 | 4217 | 0.012052 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.21795E-06 | 4661 | 4216 | 0.014495 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.28474E-06 | 4661 | 4217 | 0.014462 |
| 5 | Up>Down | 0.000352722 | 3265 | 2996 | 0.008762 |
| 5 | Right>Down | 0.004125749 | 3205 | 2996 | 0.006808 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000206112 | 4694 | 4357 | 0.010977 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.001138839 | 4694 | 4402 | 0.009511 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000206112 | 4694 | 4357 | 0.010977 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.001138839 | 4694 | 4402 | 0.009511 |
| 5b | Up>Down | 0.000477531 | 3253 | 2991 | 0.008534 |
| 5b | Right>Down | 0.004922659 | 3195 | 2991 | 0.006645 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000174598 | 4692 | 4351 | 0.011107 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.00026153 | 4692 | 4361 | 0.010781 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.33509E-05 | 4732 | 4351 | 0.01241 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 5.20896E-05 | 4732 | 4361 | 0.012084 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 0.000932139 | 3355 | 3104 | 0.008176 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 3.10383E-06 | 3355 | 2994 | 0.011759 |
| 6 | Down>Right | 0.002154853 | 3220 | 2994 | 0.007361 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.60747E-05 | 4689 | 4294 | 0.012866 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 9.28219E-06 | 4701 | 4294 | 0.013257 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.000147385 | 4689 | 4344 | 0.011237 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 9.06751E-05 | 4701 | 4344 | 0.011628 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 0.000932139 | 3355 | 3104 | 0.008176 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 3.10383E-06 | 3355 | 2994 | 0.011759 |
| 6a | Down>Right | 0.002154853 | 3220 | 2994 | 0.007361 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.60747E-05 | 4689 | 4294 | 0.012866 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 9.28219E-06 | 4701 | 4294 | 0.013257 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.000147385 | 4689 | 4344 | 0.011237 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 9.06751E-05 | 4701 | 4344 | 0.011628 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 0.000932139 | 3355 | 3104 | 0.008176 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 3.10383E-06 | 3355 | 2994 | 0.011759 |
| 6b | Down>Right | 0.002154853 | 3220 | 2994 | 0.007361 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.60747E-05 | 4689 | 4294 | 0.012866 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Left | 9.28219E-06 | 4701 | 4294 | 0.013257 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.000147385 | 4689 | 4344 | 0.011237 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 9.06751E-05 | 4701 | 4344 | 0.011628 |
| 6d | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.00204177 | 4724 | 4448 | 0.00899 |
| 6d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.007826581 | 4724 | 4491 | 0.007589 |
| 7 | Left>Down | 8.86693E-06 | 3216 | 2880 | 0.010944 |
| 7 | Up>Down | 2.08799E-07 | 3278 | 2880 | 0.012964 |
| 7 | Right>Down | 0.00292521 | 3094 | 2880 | 0.00697 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.001310868 | 4856 | 4563 | 0.009544 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 2.97734E-06 | 4856 | 4419 | 0.014234 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 8.61186E-07 | 4856 | 4395 | 0.015016 |
| 7a | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.001894336 | 4750 | 4471 | 0.009088 |
| 7a | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.002391786 | 4750 | 4478 | 0.00886 |
| 7b | Left>Down | 0.000504947 | 3185 | 2927 | 0.008404 |
| 7b | Up>Down | 0.00012479 | 3215 | 2927 | 0.009381 |
| 7b | Right>Down | 0.007523488 | 3117 | 2927 | 0.006189 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.001005991 | 4837 | 4537 | 0.009772 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000103744 | 4837 | 4478 | 0.011693 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.66221E-06 | 4837 | 4405 | 0.014071 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 5.50031E-16 | 3257 | 2641 | 0.020064 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 2.52201E-25 | 3447 | 2641 | 0.026253 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 3.11275E-17 | 3285 | 2641 | 0.020977 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 8.25984E-38 | 5135 | 3918 | 0.03964 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.21474E-35 | 5135 | 3953 | 0.0385 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.80713E-34 | 5065 | 3918 | 0.03736 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 5.40008E-32 | 5065 | 3953 | 0.03622 |
| 11 | Up>Left | 5.59941E-05 | 3313 | 3005 | 0.010032 |
| 11 | Up>Right | 0.000424745 | 3313 | 3046 | 0.008697 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.85798E-09 | 4820 | 4264 | 0.01811 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 7.4801E-08 | 4764 | 4264 | 0.016286 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.14657E-08 | 4820 | 4307 | 0.01671 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 8.38996E-07 | 4764 | 4307 | 0.014886 |
| 11a | Up>Left | 0.000329471 | 3302 | 3030 | 0.00886 |
| 11a | Up>Right | 8.27736E-05 | 3302 | 3002 | 0.009772 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.002726263 | 4750 | 4482 | 0.008729 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.21058E-07 | 4750 | 4259 | 0.015993 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.43137E-06 | 4703 | 4259 | 0.014462 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 4.10614E-07 | 2879 | 2516 | 0.011824 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 1.08429E-07 | 2879 | 2498 | 0.01241 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 3.13153E-07 | 2883 | 2516 | 0.011954 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 8.16304E-08 | 2883 | 2498 | 0.01254 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 4.52414E-06 | 5366 | 4915 | 0.01469 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 2.41144E-13 | 5366 | 4642 | 0.023582 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000181698 | 5366 | 5002 | 0.011856 |
| 12 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.002697175 | 4915 | 4642 | 0.008892 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.000128065 | 5002 | 4642 | 0.011726 |