| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1c | Up>Down | 0.005796324 | 3839 | 3620 | 0.006974 |
| 2c | Left>Up | 1.30232E-08 | 3803 | 3332 | 0.014998 |
| 2c | Down>Left | 2.81144E-07 | 4253 | 3803 | 0.014329 |
| 2c | Right>Up | 2.81177E-05 | 3670 | 3332 | 0.010763 |
| 2c | Down>Up | 1.91588E-26 | 4253 | 3332 | 0.029327 |
| 2c | Down>Right | 3.04774E-11 | 4253 | 3670 | 0.018565 |
| 2c | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.09064E-13 | 4388 | 3734 | 0.020825 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Up-Left | 7.23723E-18 | 4509 | 3734 | 0.024678 |
| 2c | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.02511E-14 | 4388 | 3715 | 0.02143 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.05602E-18 | 4509 | 3715 | 0.025283 |
| 2d | Left>Up | 0.007306474 | 3804 | 3593 | 0.006719 |
| 2d | Down>Up | 1.41563E-06 | 4002 | 3593 | 0.013024 |
| 2d | Down>Right | 0.008154283 | 4002 | 3789 | 0.006783 |
| 2d | Down-Right>Up-Left | 3.83886E-05 | 4186 | 3831 | 0.011304 |
| 2d | Down-Left>Up-Left | 2.30704E-05 | 4197 | 3831 | 0.011655 |
| 3c | Up>Left | 0.005106388 | 3813 | 3591 | 0.007069 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 2.79797E-33 | 3591 | 2647 | 0.030061 |
| 3c | Up>Right | 3.18592E-06 | 3813 | 3428 | 0.01226 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 3.67434E-48 | 3813 | 2647 | 0.03713 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 6.15645E-24 | 3428 | 2647 | 0.02487 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 6.93247E-36 | 5062 | 3885 | 0.03748 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 9.08094E-34 | 5062 | 3920 | 0.036366 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.2891E-35 | 5057 | 3885 | 0.037321 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.65617E-33 | 5057 | 3920 | 0.036207 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 6.42508E-09 | 3430 | 2974 | 0.014521 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 1.04395E-12 | 3542 | 2974 | 0.018087 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 1.74735E-07 | 3381 | 2974 | 0.012961 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 6.09026E-14 | 4851 | 4147 | 0.022418 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 6.62943E-10 | 4851 | 4271 | 0.01847 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.61454E-12 | 4807 | 4147 | 0.021017 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 9.73245E-09 | 4807 | 4271 | 0.017068 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 2.75742E-24 | 3596 | 2789 | 0.025698 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 0.005793952 | 3701 | 3486 | 0.006846 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 4.83247E-30 | 3701 | 2789 | 0.029042 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 7.14243E-19 | 3486 | 2789 | 0.022195 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.14955E-23 | 4913 | 3983 | 0.029615 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 6.27639E-21 | 4913 | 4032 | 0.028055 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.5509E-23 | 4903 | 3983 | 0.029297 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.61381E-20 | 4903 | 4032 | 0.027736 |
| 4d | Left>Down | 4.87161E-05 | 3405 | 3090 | 0.010031 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 3.6109E-08 | 3529 | 3090 | 0.01398 |
| 4d | Right>Down | 0.000225499 | 3373 | 3090 | 0.009012 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.32017E-08 | 4770 | 4241 | 0.016846 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 5.03929E-08 | 4770 | 4263 | 0.016145 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.14532E-07 | 4732 | 4241 | 0.015635 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.99539E-07 | 4732 | 4263 | 0.014935 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000210829 | 4848 | 4506 | 0.010891 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.00030023 | 4848 | 4515 | 0.010604 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000497331 | 4796 | 4478 | 0.010126 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.001619805 | 4796 | 4511 | 0.009076 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.003277822 | 4740 | 4478 | 0.008343 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 0.001112563 | 3359 | 3112 | 0.007865 |
| 6 | Down>Left | 0.000501174 | 3378 | 3112 | 0.008471 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 4.79892E-06 | 3359 | 3005 | 0.011273 |
| 6 | Down>Right | 1.60078E-06 | 3378 | 3005 | 0.011878 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000960224 | 4827 | 4526 | 0.009585 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 3.03211E-05 | 4827 | 4440 | 0.012324 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000509717 | 4756 | 4440 | 0.010063 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 0.001112563 | 3359 | 3112 | 0.007865 |
| 6a | Down>Left | 0.000501174 | 3378 | 3112 | 0.008471 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 4.79892E-06 | 3359 | 3005 | 0.011273 |
| 6a | Down>Right | 1.60078E-06 | 3378 | 3005 | 0.011878 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000960224 | 4827 | 4526 | 0.009585 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 3.03211E-05 | 4827 | 4440 | 0.012324 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000509717 | 4756 | 4440 | 0.010063 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 0.001112563 | 3359 | 3112 | 0.007865 |
| 6b | Down>Left | 0.000501174 | 3378 | 3112 | 0.008471 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 4.79892E-06 | 3359 | 3005 | 0.011273 |
| 6b | Down>Right | 1.60078E-06 | 3378 | 3005 | 0.011878 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000960224 | 4827 | 4526 | 0.009585 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 3.03211E-05 | 4827 | 4440 | 0.012324 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000509717 | 4756 | 4440 | 0.010063 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000827617 | 4822 | 4517 | 0.009712 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000989341 | 4822 | 4522 | 0.009553 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.007120211 | 4754 | 4517 | 0.007547 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.008229893 | 4754 | 4522 | 0.007388 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.003067936 | 4809 | 4543 | 0.008471 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.001533425 | 4809 | 4522 | 0.00914 |
| 7c | Down>Left | 0.001982665 | 3303 | 3072 | 0.007356 |
| 8 | Down>Left | 0.001982665 | 3303 | 3072 | 0.007356 |
| 8a | Down>Left | 0.001982665 | 3303 | 3072 | 0.007356 |
| 8b | Down>Left | 0.001982665 | 3303 | 3072 | 0.007356 |
| 10 | Up>Left | 7.39666E-07 | 3690 | 3287 | 0.012834 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 1.94203E-22 | 3287 | 2548 | 0.023534 |
| 10 | Up>Right | 0.000873669 | 3690 | 3425 | 0.008439 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 7.3109E-48 | 3690 | 2548 | 0.036367 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 3.50364E-30 | 3425 | 2548 | 0.027928 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 6.62825E-36 | 5280 | 4076 | 0.038342 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 2.09793E-50 | 5280 | 3859 | 0.045252 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.15249E-33 | 5237 | 4076 | 0.036972 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 9.97451E-48 | 5237 | 3859 | 0.043883 |
| 10 | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.007655276 | 4076 | 3859 | 0.00691 |
| 10a | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.007084792 | 4827 | 4588 | 0.007611 |
| 11 | Up>Left | 0.002425166 | 3275 | 3050 | 0.007165 |
| 11 | Down>Left | 0.001846576 | 3282 | 3050 | 0.007388 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.84686E-13 | 5029 | 4331 | 0.022228 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 4.11862E-06 | 4757 | 4331 | 0.013566 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 6.56797E-10 | 5029 | 4438 | 0.01882 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000455631 | 4757 | 4438 | 0.010159 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.003075488 | 5029 | 4757 | 0.008662 |
| 11a | Up>Left | 0.007796015 | 3282 | 3088 | 0.006178 |
| 11a | Down>Left | 0.003995035 | 3301 | 3088 | 0.006783 |
| 11a | Up>Right | 7.10699E-05 | 3282 | 2980 | 0.009617 |
| 11a | Down>Right | 2.68931E-05 | 3301 | 2980 | 0.010222 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 4.90126E-07 | 4947 | 4471 | 0.015158 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.000146783 | 4821 | 4471 | 0.011146 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.03855E-06 | 4947 | 4512 | 0.013853 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000715261 | 4821 | 4512 | 0.00984 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 0.000106748 | 2918 | 2641 | 0.008821 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 1.21787E-06 | 2918 | 2568 | 0.011146 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 3.68869E-05 | 2938 | 2641 | 0.009458 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 3.26791E-07 | 2938 | 2568 | 0.011783 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 8.75914E-13 | 5726 | 4995 | 0.023279 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.10025E-31 | 5726 | 4556 | 0.037259 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 7.51361E-11 | 5726 | 5060 | 0.021209 |
| 12 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.68837E-06 | 4995 | 4556 | 0.01398 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 1.44429E-07 | 5060 | 4556 | 0.01605 |