| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1c | Left>Right | 0.006472859 | 4029 | 3808 | 0.00684 |
| 1c | Left>Down | 0.001339602 | 4029 | 3763 | 0.008233 |
| 2c | Left>Up | 1.09086E-11 | 3955 | 3381 | 0.017766 |
| 2c | Down>Left | 1.25822E-07 | 4428 | 3955 | 0.01464 |
| 2c | Right>Up | 5.71706E-07 | 3794 | 3381 | 0.012783 |
| 2c | Down>Up | 1.01997E-32 | 4428 | 3381 | 0.032407 |
| 2c | Down>Right | 1.43097E-12 | 4428 | 3794 | 0.019624 |
| 2c | Down-Right>Up-Left | 5.9202E-17 | 4456 | 3707 | 0.023183 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.52642E-27 | 4698 | 3707 | 0.030674 |
| 2c | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 2.85561E-10 | 4456 | 3889 | 0.01755 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.32094E-18 | 4698 | 3889 | 0.02504 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.005883991 | 4698 | 4456 | 0.00749 |
| 2d | Left>Up | 2.76798E-05 | 3989 | 3636 | 0.010926 |
| 2d | Down>Up | 1.1913E-09 | 4164 | 3636 | 0.016343 |
| 2d | Down>Right | 5.11632E-05 | 4164 | 3816 | 0.010772 |
| 2d | Down-Left>Up-Left | 4.76533E-05 | 4389 | 4030 | 0.011112 |
| 2d | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000151231 | 4389 | 4056 | 0.010307 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 1.92334E-36 | 3728 | 2721 | 0.03117 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 6.00855E-34 | 3688 | 2721 | 0.029932 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 1.74402E-29 | 3613 | 2721 | 0.02761 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.6268E-27 | 5169 | 4134 | 0.032036 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 2.01481E-28 | 5169 | 4110 | 0.032779 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 5.03484E-26 | 5144 | 4134 | 0.031263 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.98227E-27 | 5144 | 4110 | 0.032005 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 3.02479E-11 | 3576 | 3043 | 0.016498 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 6.58639E-15 | 3675 | 3043 | 0.019562 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 3.83381E-10 | 3543 | 3043 | 0.015477 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 6.77082E-07 | 4866 | 4400 | 0.014424 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.15036E-07 | 4866 | 4368 | 0.015415 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.9894E-06 | 4836 | 4400 | 0.013496 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 5.61519E-07 | 4836 | 4368 | 0.014486 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 3.69388E-23 | 3703 | 2903 | 0.024762 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 0.003369914 | 3783 | 3550 | 0.007212 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 2.50779E-27 | 3783 | 2903 | 0.027239 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 4.19394E-16 | 3550 | 2903 | 0.020027 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 8.71772E-23 | 5110 | 4170 | 0.029096 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.39359E-31 | 5110 | 4000 | 0.034358 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 7.2719E-22 | 5088 | 4170 | 0.028415 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.74069E-30 | 5088 | 4000 | 0.033677 |
| 4d | Left>Down | 2.29994E-05 | 3569 | 3232 | 0.010431 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 1.52506E-05 | 3577 | 3232 | 0.010679 |
| 4d | Right>Down | 0.003195261 | 3456 | 3232 | 0.006933 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001007669 | 4775 | 4477 | 0.009224 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.98182E-06 | 4775 | 4352 | 0.013093 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.61565E-05 | 4869 | 4477 | 0.012134 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.83131E-08 | 4869 | 4352 | 0.016003 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001104285 | 4955 | 4654 | 0.009317 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 8.23088E-05 | 4955 | 4586 | 0.011422 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 6.64278E-05 | 5031 | 4654 | 0.011669 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.9728E-06 | 5031 | 4586 | 0.013774 |
| 5b | Up>Down | 0.006036917 | 3373 | 3169 | 0.006314 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000139076 | 4921 | 4566 | 0.010988 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.001162797 | 5004 | 4703 | 0.009317 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.95075E-06 | 5004 | 4566 | 0.013557 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 9.46844E-06 | 3486 | 3137 | 0.010803 |
| 6 | Down>Left | 0.00225724 | 3367 | 3137 | 0.007119 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 2.42408E-05 | 3486 | 3154 | 0.010276 |
| 6 | Down>Right | 0.004326133 | 3367 | 3154 | 0.006593 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 9.37262E-08 | 5027 | 4517 | 0.015786 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.60209E-08 | 5059 | 4517 | 0.016777 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 9.66946E-07 | 5027 | 4560 | 0.014455 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.89953E-07 | 5059 | 4560 | 0.015446 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 9.46844E-06 | 3486 | 3137 | 0.010803 |
| 6a | Down>Left | 0.00225724 | 3367 | 3137 | 0.007119 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 2.42408E-05 | 3486 | 3154 | 0.010276 |
| 6a | Down>Right | 0.004326133 | 3367 | 3154 | 0.006593 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 9.37262E-08 | 5027 | 4517 | 0.015786 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.60209E-08 | 5059 | 4517 | 0.016777 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 9.66946E-07 | 5027 | 4560 | 0.014455 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.89953E-07 | 5059 | 4560 | 0.015446 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 9.46844E-06 | 3486 | 3137 | 0.010803 |
| 6b | Down>Left | 0.00225724 | 3367 | 3137 | 0.007119 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 2.42408E-05 | 3486 | 3154 | 0.010276 |
| 6b | Down>Right | 0.004326133 | 3367 | 3154 | 0.006593 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Left | 9.37262E-08 | 5027 | 4517 | 0.015786 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.60209E-08 | 5059 | 4517 | 0.016777 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 9.66946E-07 | 5027 | 4560 | 0.014455 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.89953E-07 | 5059 | 4560 | 0.015446 |
| 7 | Up>Right | 0.000973758 | 3489 | 3234 | 0.007893 |
| 7 | Up>Down | 0.000325426 | 3489 | 3209 | 0.008667 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 9.06889E-06 | 4942 | 4524 | 0.012938 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000240411 | 4942 | 4600 | 0.010586 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 7.61409E-07 | 4994 | 4524 | 0.014548 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.99988E-05 | 4994 | 4600 | 0.012195 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001056993 | 4882 | 4582 | 0.009286 |
| 7b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.17891E-05 | 4951 | 4582 | 0.011422 |
| 7b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.001138284 | 4951 | 4651 | 0.009286 |
| 7c | Up>Down | 0.006697914 | 3371 | 3170 | 0.006222 |
| 8 | Up>Down | 0.006697914 | 3371 | 3170 | 0.006222 |
| 8a | Up>Down | 0.006697914 | 3371 | 3170 | 0.006222 |
| 8b | Up>Down | 0.006697914 | 3371 | 3170 | 0.006222 |
| 10 | Up>Left | 7.59156E-06 | 3704 | 3340 | 0.011267 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 5.90852E-14 | 3340 | 2760 | 0.017953 |
| 10 | Up>Right | 0.003963568 | 3704 | 3478 | 0.006995 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 3.53885E-32 | 3704 | 2760 | 0.02922 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 5.04146E-20 | 3478 | 2760 | 0.022224 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.03569E-41 | 5347 | 4042 | 0.040394 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 2.06696E-37 | 5347 | 4110 | 0.038289 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.01058E-52 | 5526 | 4042 | 0.045934 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.4333E-47 | 5526 | 4110 | 0.04383 |
| 11 | Up>Left | 0.000143919 | 3390 | 3097 | 0.009069 |
| 11 | Right>Left | 0.003619771 | 3313 | 3097 | 0.006686 |
| 11 | Down>Left | 1.77942E-05 | 3432 | 3097 | 0.010369 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 7.14099E-18 | 5224 | 4387 | 0.025908 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 9.80149E-08 | 4889 | 4387 | 0.015538 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 2.90675E-11 | 5224 | 4575 | 0.020089 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000646161 | 4889 | 4575 | 0.009719 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.000447575 | 5224 | 4889 | 0.010369 |
| 11a | Up>Left | 0.000233317 | 3437 | 3152 | 0.008822 |
| 11a | Down>Left | 0.001389646 | 3395 | 3152 | 0.007522 |
| 11a | Up>Right | 0.000486856 | 3437 | 3168 | 0.008326 |
| 11a | Down>Right | 0.002635902 | 3395 | 3168 | 0.007026 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 2.56294E-10 | 5125 | 4514 | 0.018912 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.52082E-05 | 4920 | 4514 | 0.012567 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.24233E-08 | 5125 | 4596 | 0.016374 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000464132 | 4920 | 4596 | 0.010029 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 3.11419E-08 | 3034 | 2626 | 0.012629 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 1.50248E-07 | 3034 | 2647 | 0.011979 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 7.21139E-09 | 3054 | 2626 | 0.013248 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 3.73823E-08 | 3054 | 2647 | 0.012598 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 4.77633E-09 | 5788 | 5186 | 0.018634 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 7.07128E-28 | 5788 | 4675 | 0.034451 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.62192E-06 | 5788 | 5297 | 0.015198 |
| 12 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.39638E-07 | 5186 | 4675 | 0.015817 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 2.47514E-10 | 5297 | 4675 | 0.019253 |