| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1c | Left>Right | 0.005141292 | 3752 | 3532 | 0.007326 |
| 1c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001277732 | 3992 | 3726 | 0.008858 |
| 1d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.006602169 | 3979 | 3760 | 0.007293 |
| 2c | Up>Right | 0.001929669 | 3600 | 3358 | 0.008059 |
| 2c | Down>Right | 7.83192E-05 | 3676 | 3358 | 0.010589 |
| 3a | Up>Right | 0.007967691 | 3303 | 3109 | 0.00646 |
| 3b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.006161921 | 4376 | 4144 | 0.007726 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 1.96674E-39 | 3498 | 2487 | 0.033666 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 2.16352E-40 | 3512 | 2487 | 0.034133 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 5.25071E-32 | 3384 | 2487 | 0.02987 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.012E-26 | 4809 | 3821 | 0.0329 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 2.32315E-32 | 4809 | 3721 | 0.03623 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.34645E-26 | 4798 | 3821 | 0.032534 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 8.72499E-32 | 4798 | 3721 | 0.035864 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 9.47782E-14 | 3381 | 2802 | 0.019281 |
| 3d | Up>Right | 0.000372359 | 3488 | 3211 | 0.009224 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 2.67841E-18 | 3488 | 2802 | 0.022844 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 7.06656E-08 | 3211 | 2802 | 0.01362 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 2.99224E-06 | 4516 | 4095 | 0.014019 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.19687E-09 | 4516 | 3980 | 0.017849 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.57479E-07 | 4557 | 4095 | 0.015385 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.23947E-10 | 4557 | 3980 | 0.019214 |
| 4 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.004945842 | 4449 | 4208 | 0.008025 |
| 4 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.007750701 | 4434 | 4208 | 0.007526 |
| 4a | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.008315249 | 4448 | 4224 | 0.007459 |
| 4b | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.004584637 | 4471 | 4227 | 0.008125 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 6.7786E-17 | 3391 | 2743 | 0.021578 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 0.007114665 | 3429 | 3228 | 0.006693 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 1.29503E-18 | 3429 | 2743 | 0.022844 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 1.84131E-10 | 3228 | 2743 | 0.016151 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.5882E-26 | 4785 | 3812 | 0.032401 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.52708E-19 | 4785 | 3955 | 0.027639 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.16953E-21 | 4687 | 3812 | 0.029138 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.80146E-15 | 4687 | 3955 | 0.024376 |
| 4d | Left>Down | 0.000511675 | 3290 | 3028 | 0.008725 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 0.000534514 | 3289 | 3028 | 0.008691 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 8.21616E-07 | 4515 | 4070 | 0.014819 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000486118 | 4515 | 4206 | 0.01029 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.02039E-05 | 4441 | 4070 | 0.012354 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.005925515 | 4441 | 4206 | 0.007826 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 2.20807E-05 | 4613 | 4228 | 0.012821 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.00186007 | 4500 | 4228 | 0.009058 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000939111 | 4589 | 4295 | 0.00979 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.003144174 | 4553 | 4295 | 0.008591 |
| 5c | Left>Right | 0.006699883 | 3175 | 2980 | 0.006494 |
| 5d | Left>Right | 0.000722694 | 3206 | 2955 | 0.008358 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 0.002022179 | 3149 | 2924 | 0.007493 |
| 6 | Down>Left | 0.002664566 | 3142 | 2924 | 0.007259 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 0.000124596 | 3149 | 2864 | 0.009491 |
| 6 | Down>Right | 0.000175213 | 3142 | 2864 | 0.009257 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.59857E-06 | 4705 | 4263 | 0.014719 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 3.87384E-06 | 4687 | 4263 | 0.014119 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 8.49548E-06 | 4705 | 4296 | 0.01362 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.93206E-05 | 4687 | 4296 | 0.01302 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 0.002022179 | 3149 | 2924 | 0.007493 |
| 6a | Down>Left | 0.002664566 | 3142 | 2924 | 0.007259 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 0.000124596 | 3149 | 2864 | 0.009491 |
| 6a | Down>Right | 0.000175213 | 3142 | 2864 | 0.009257 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.59857E-06 | 4705 | 4263 | 0.014719 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 3.87384E-06 | 4687 | 4263 | 0.014119 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 8.49548E-06 | 4705 | 4296 | 0.01362 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.93206E-05 | 4687 | 4296 | 0.01302 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 0.002022179 | 3149 | 2924 | 0.007493 |
| 6b | Down>Left | 0.002664566 | 3142 | 2924 | 0.007259 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 0.000124596 | 3149 | 2864 | 0.009491 |
| 6b | Down>Right | 0.000175213 | 3142 | 2864 | 0.009257 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.59857E-06 | 4705 | 4263 | 0.014719 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Left | 3.87384E-06 | 4687 | 4263 | 0.014119 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 8.49548E-06 | 4705 | 4296 | 0.01362 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.93206E-05 | 4687 | 4296 | 0.01302 |
| 7 | Up>Left | 0.003261863 | 3232 | 3016 | 0.007193 |
| 7 | Up>Right | 0.000346318 | 3232 | 2964 | 0.008924 |
| 7 | Up>Down | 0.000158806 | 3232 | 2948 | 0.009457 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 5.94562E-05 | 4682 | 4316 | 0.012188 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000104213 | 4682 | 4329 | 0.011755 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.008169809 | 4543 | 4316 | 0.007559 |
| 7b | Up>Right | 0.000327298 | 3204 | 2936 | 0.008924 |
| 7b | Up>Down | 0.00326832 | 3204 | 2989 | 0.00716 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.007427863 | 4613 | 4381 | 0.007726 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.002392219 | 4613 | 4345 | 0.008924 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 1.88237E-25 | 3296 | 2507 | 0.026274 |
| 10 | Up>Right | 0.003215043 | 3461 | 3237 | 0.007459 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 2.08751E-35 | 3461 | 2507 | 0.031768 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 2.93938E-22 | 3237 | 2507 | 0.024309 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 5.78093E-38 | 5037 | 3830 | 0.040193 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.50655E-47 | 5037 | 3695 | 0.044689 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.72185E-34 | 4967 | 3830 | 0.037862 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 6.59616E-43 | 4967 | 3695 | 0.042358 |
| 11 | Up>Left | 0.003674562 | 3145 | 2935 | 0.006993 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 3.9899E-09 | 4840 | 4288 | 0.018382 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.004832506 | 4532 | 4288 | 0.008125 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.84436E-10 | 4840 | 4242 | 0.019913 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.001015842 | 4532 | 4242 | 0.009657 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Down-Le | 0.000758412 | 4840 | 4532 | 0.010256 |
| 11a | Up>Left | 0.008282859 | 3206 | 3016 | 0.006327 |
| 11a | Up>Right | 0.000943556 | 3206 | 2961 | 0.008159 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.001298687 | 4621 | 4335 | 0.009524 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.00336773 | 4592 | 4335 | 0.008558 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 6.37104E-05 | 4621 | 4259 | 0.012055 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.000208329 | 4592 | 4259 | 0.011089 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 6.38351E-10 | 2913 | 2467 | 0.014852 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 1.14114E-10 | 2913 | 2448 | 0.015485 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 3.25269E-06 | 2795 | 2467 | 0.010922 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 8.76035E-07 | 2795 | 2448 | 0.011555 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 1.25667E-09 | 5335 | 4736 | 0.019947 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.80097E-17 | 5335 | 4499 | 0.027839 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.13803E-07 | 5335 | 4837 | 0.016583 |
| 12 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.007026326 | 4736 | 4499 | 0.007892 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.000243205 | 4837 | 4499 | 0.011255 |