| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1c | Up>Down | 0.006111124 | 3930 | 3710 | 0.006896 |
| 2c | Up>Left | 1.16499E-05 | 3927 | 3560 | 0.011504 |
| 2c | Down>Left | 0.000426673 | 3848 | 3560 | 0.009028 |
| 2c | Up>Right | 4.41154E-06 | 3927 | 3542 | 0.012068 |
| 2c | Down>Right | 0.000193779 | 3848 | 3542 | 0.009592 |
| 2c | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.003983539 | 4457 | 4209 | 0.007774 |
| 2c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.0818E-05 | 4457 | 4064 | 0.012319 |
| 2c | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.005938358 | 4295 | 4064 | 0.007241 |
| 2d | Up>Right | 0.006449815 | 3989 | 3769 | 0.006896 |
| 2d | Up>Down | 0.007333936 | 3989 | 3773 | 0.006771 |
| 2d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000877226 | 4233 | 3949 | 0.008902 |
| 2d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.002214014 | 4207 | 3949 | 0.008087 |
| 2d | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.007309005 | 4170 | 3949 | 0.006927 |
| 3c | Left>Down | 2.03673E-39 | 3740 | 2692 | 0.032851 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 1.30437E-40 | 3758 | 2692 | 0.033415 |
| 3c | Right>Down | 2.31767E-28 | 3560 | 2692 | 0.027208 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.16293E-31 | 5098 | 3988 | 0.034794 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 8.16053E-30 | 5098 | 4021 | 0.03376 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.82179E-29 | 5045 | 3988 | 0.033133 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 2.79463E-27 | 5045 | 4021 | 0.032098 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 1.46913E-11 | 3483 | 2949 | 0.016739 |
| 3d | Up>Right | 0.002781742 | 3649 | 3415 | 0.007335 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 3.54714E-18 | 3649 | 2949 | 0.021942 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 2.74757E-09 | 3415 | 2949 | 0.014607 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.93221E-12 | 4930 | 4273 | 0.020594 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 6.13683E-10 | 4930 | 4344 | 0.018369 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.56983E-10 | 4859 | 4273 | 0.018369 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 4.17742E-08 | 4859 | 4344 | 0.016143 |
| 4 | Left>Down | 0.005704753 | 3354 | 3149 | 0.006426 |
| 4c | Up>Left | 0.004837824 | 3861 | 3636 | 0.007053 |
| 4c | Left>Down | 2.03182E-24 | 3636 | 2822 | 0.025516 |
| 4c | Up>Right | 4.09734E-06 | 3861 | 3478 | 0.012006 |
| 4c | Up>Down | 2.20596E-37 | 3861 | 2822 | 0.032568 |
| 4c | Right>Down | 7.30946E-17 | 3478 | 2822 | 0.020563 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 2.96416E-25 | 4982 | 4004 | 0.030656 |
| 4c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 2.64108E-18 | 4982 | 4155 | 0.025923 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.90512E-24 | 4964 | 4004 | 0.030092 |
| 4c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.26128E-17 | 4964 | 4155 | 0.025359 |
| 4d | Left>Down | 3.80119E-06 | 3472 | 3108 | 0.01141 |
| 4d | Up>Right | 0.003309264 | 3640 | 3411 | 0.007178 |
| 4d | Up>Down | 4.98693E-11 | 3640 | 3108 | 0.016676 |
| 4d | Right>Down | 9.16419E-05 | 3411 | 3108 | 0.009498 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000104213 | 4682 | 4329 | 0.011065 |
| 4d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.001123627 | 4682 | 4390 | 0.009153 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.91884E-09 | 4870 | 4329 | 0.016958 |
| 4d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.1993E-07 | 4870 | 4390 | 0.015046 |
| 5 | Up>Left | 0.003653331 | 3474 | 3253 | 0.006927 |
| 5 | Left>Down | 0.004897961 | 3253 | 3047 | 0.006457 |
| 5 | Up>Down | 6.55948E-08 | 3474 | 3047 | 0.013385 |
| 5 | Right>Down | 0.001002065 | 3294 | 3047 | 0.007742 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000855916 | 4820 | 4516 | 0.009529 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.003983837 | 4820 | 4562 | 0.008087 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.14727E-06 | 4936 | 4516 | 0.013165 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 6.46572E-05 | 4936 | 4562 | 0.011723 |
| 5a | Up>Down | 0.005490833 | 3352 | 3146 | 0.006457 |
| 5b | Left>Down | 0.00262913 | 3276 | 3053 | 0.00699 |
| 5b | Up>Right | 0.003755205 | 3466 | 3246 | 0.006896 |
| 5b | Up>Down | 1.6591E-07 | 3466 | 3053 | 0.012946 |
| 5b | Right>Down | 0.007774778 | 3246 | 3053 | 0.00605 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.001680865 | 4799 | 4515 | 0.008902 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.005478621 | 4799 | 4552 | 0.007742 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.48814E-07 | 4995 | 4515 | 0.015046 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.02811E-06 | 4995 | 4552 | 0.013886 |
| 5c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.007431785 | 4813 | 4576 | 0.007429 |
| 5c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.001786772 | 4860 | 4576 | 0.008902 |
| 5d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000759296 | 4841 | 4533 | 0.009655 |
| 5d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.001500404 | 4821 | 4533 | 0.009028 |
| 5d | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.001550868 | 4820 | 4533 | 0.008996 |
| 6 | Up>Left | 0.000235292 | 3465 | 3179 | 0.008965 |
| 6 | Up>Right | 3.50223E-06 | 3465 | 3100 | 0.011441 |
| 6 | Up>Down | 0.001539898 | 3465 | 3222 | 0.007617 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000132992 | 4837 | 4484 | 0.011065 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 4.00656E-09 | 5048 | 4484 | 0.017679 |
| 6 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.002767753 | 4837 | 4567 | 0.008463 |
| 6 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 4.88708E-07 | 5048 | 4567 | 0.015077 |
| 6a | Up>Left | 0.000235292 | 3465 | 3179 | 0.008965 |
| 6a | Up>Right | 3.50223E-06 | 3465 | 3100 | 0.011441 |
| 6a | Up>Down | 0.001539898 | 3465 | 3222 | 0.007617 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000132992 | 4837 | 4484 | 0.011065 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 4.00656E-09 | 5048 | 4484 | 0.017679 |
| 6a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.002767753 | 4837 | 4567 | 0.008463 |
| 6a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 4.88708E-07 | 5048 | 4567 | 0.015077 |
| 6b | Up>Left | 0.000235292 | 3465 | 3179 | 0.008965 |
| 6b | Up>Right | 3.50223E-06 | 3465 | 3100 | 0.011441 |
| 6b | Up>Down | 0.001539898 | 3465 | 3222 | 0.007617 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Left | 0.000132992 | 4837 | 4484 | 0.011065 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Left | 4.00656E-09 | 5048 | 4484 | 0.017679 |
| 6b | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.002767753 | 4837 | 4567 | 0.008463 |
| 6b | Down-Left>Up-Right | 4.88708E-07 | 5048 | 4567 | 0.015077 |
| 7 | Left>Down | 0.003066792 | 3363 | 3141 | 0.006959 |
| 7 | Up>Down | 0.000710321 | 3400 | 3141 | 0.008119 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.68123E-05 | 4872 | 4493 | 0.01188 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.000588446 | 4872 | 4556 | 0.009905 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.000991225 | 4792 | 4493 | 0.009372 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 0.007535291 | 4792 | 4556 | 0.007398 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.002274764 | 4801 | 4526 | 0.00862 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.005825131 | 4801 | 4556 | 0.00768 |
| 7b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.003864557 | 4784 | 4526 | 0.008087 |
| 10 | Up>Left | 0.006329295 | 3722 | 3509 | 0.006677 |
| 10 | Left>Down | 1.76601E-23 | 3509 | 2726 | 0.024544 |
| 10 | Up>Right | 0.000448835 | 3722 | 3440 | 0.00884 |
| 10 | Up>Down | 1.0732E-35 | 3722 | 2726 | 0.031221 |
| 10 | Right>Down | 4.94815E-20 | 3440 | 2726 | 0.022381 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 5.17224E-48 | 5308 | 3916 | 0.043634 |
| 10 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.67276E-47 | 5308 | 3928 | 0.043257 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.33624E-51 | 5353 | 3916 | 0.045044 |
| 10 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 6.27356E-50 | 5353 | 3928 | 0.044668 |
| 11 | Up>Left | 6.71192E-05 | 3344 | 3038 | 0.009592 |
| 11 | Down>Left | 0.00070489 | 3293 | 3038 | 0.007993 |
| 11 | Up>Right | 0.005641647 | 3344 | 3139 | 0.006426 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Left | 6.04655E-09 | 5006 | 4451 | 0.017397 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Left | 1.12414E-07 | 4954 | 4451 | 0.015767 |
| 11 | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.00042873 | 5006 | 4677 | 0.010313 |
| 11 | Down-Left>Up-Right | 0.002457563 | 4954 | 4677 | 0.008683 |
| 11a | Up>Left | 6.89098E-05 | 3398 | 3090 | 0.009655 |
| 11a | Up>Right | 8.18059E-06 | 3398 | 3051 | 0.010877 |
| 11a | Down>Right | 0.00328907 | 3268 | 3051 | 0.006802 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Left | 6.57226E-05 | 4946 | 4572 | 0.011723 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Left | 9.13326E-06 | 4992 | 4572 | 0.013165 |
| 11a | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 0.000113049 | 4946 | 4585 | 0.011316 |
| 11a | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.66762E-05 | 4992 | 4585 | 0.012758 |
| 12 | Left>Right | 6.33649E-09 | 3032 | 2604 | 0.013416 |
| 12 | Left>Down | 4.47022E-11 | 3032 | 2547 | 0.015203 |
| 12 | Up>Right | 2.99774E-06 | 2942 | 2604 | 0.010595 |
| 12 | Up>Down | 5.18203E-08 | 2942 | 2547 | 0.012382 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 8.98683E-06 | 5682 | 5233 | 0.014074 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.47859E-23 | 5682 | 4671 | 0.031691 |
| 12 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.30124E-06 | 5682 | 5191 | 0.015391 |
| 12 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 8.57266E-09 | 5233 | 4671 | 0.017616 |
| 12 | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 8.59788E-08 | 5191 | 4671 | 0.0163 |