| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1c | Left>Up | 6.60088E-07 | 3414 | 3025 | 0.01292 |
| 1c | Left>Right | 0.000467205 | 3414 | 3145 | 0.008934 |
| 1c | Down>Up | 5.90056E-11 | 3548 | 3025 | 0.01737 |
| 1c | Down>Right | 4.43466E-07 | 3548 | 3145 | 0.013385 |
| 1c | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.0001544 | 4196 | 3871 | 0.010794 |
| 1c | Down-Left>Up-Left | 0.000327792 | 4515 | 4196 | 0.010595 |
| 1c | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.34934E-09 | 4395 | 3871 | 0.017403 |
| 1c | Down-Left>Up-Right | 1.07082E-12 | 4515 | 3871 | 0.021389 |
| 1d | Left>Up | 0.001603053 | 3270 | 3035 | 0.007805 |
| 1d | Down>Left | 7.0923E-05 | 3586 | 3270 | 0.010495 |
| 1d | Right>Up | 0.004330699 | 3244 | 3035 | 0.006941 |
| 1d | Down>Up | 6.75357E-12 | 3586 | 3035 | 0.0183 |
| 1d | Down>Right | 1.83805E-05 | 3586 | 3244 | 0.011359 |
| 1d | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.008004373 | 4092 | 3876 | 0.007174 |
| 1d | Down-Right>Up-Left | 3.80476E-06 | 4508 | 4092 | 0.013816 |
| 1d | Down-Left>Up-Left | 6.19709E-06 | 4498 | 4092 | 0.013484 |
| 1d | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 2.70213E-12 | 4508 | 3876 | 0.02099 |
| 1d | Down-Left>Up-Right | 5.63689E-12 | 4498 | 3876 | 0.020658 |
| 3 | Down>Left | 0.001594519 | 4079 | 3816 | 0.008735 |
| 3 | Up>Right | 0.000464065 | 4008 | 3716 | 0.009698 |
| 3 | Down>Right | 2.05817E-05 | 4079 | 3716 | 0.012056 |
| 3b | Down>Left | 0.001269125 | 4076 | 3807 | 0.008934 |
| 3b | Up>Right | 0.007440716 | 3969 | 3754 | 0.007141 |
| 3b | Down>Right | 0.000142752 | 4076 | 3754 | 0.010694 |
| 3c | Up>Left | 7.82183E-71 | 4623 | 3070 | 0.051579 |
| 3c | Down>Left | 8.81322E-08 | 3494 | 3070 | 0.014082 |
| 3c | Up>Right | 5.57305E-77 | 4623 | 3009 | 0.053605 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 2.24468E-36 | 4623 | 3494 | 0.037497 |
| 3c | Down>Right | 9.59048E-10 | 3494 | 3009 | 0.016108 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.007281163 | 5069 | 4825 | 0.008104 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.4174E-127 | 5069 | 2934 | 0.070909 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.0274E-108 | 5069 | 3085 | 0.065894 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.9275E-103 | 4825 | 2934 | 0.062805 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 4.05175E-86 | 4825 | 3085 | 0.05779 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 0.000437006 | 3706 | 3424 | 0.009366 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 2.25367E-05 | 3771 | 3424 | 0.011525 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 0.00271276 | 3659 | 3424 | 0.007805 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.96786E-17 | 4265 | 3522 | 0.024677 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.17772E-13 | 4265 | 3614 | 0.021621 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.65528E-13 | 4148 | 3522 | 0.020791 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 7.14815E-10 | 4148 | 3614 | 0.017736 |
| 5 | Up>Left | 4.70269E-30 | 4676 | 3643 | 0.034309 |
| 5 | Down>Left | 1.50088E-05 | 4009 | 3643 | 0.012156 |
| 5 | Up>Right | 1.19224E-39 | 4676 | 3491 | 0.039357 |
| 5 | Up>Down | 4.34289E-13 | 4676 | 4009 | 0.022153 |
| 5 | Down>Right | 1.17107E-09 | 4009 | 3491 | 0.017204 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 7.31636E-17 | 3926 | 3227 | 0.023216 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 8.87586E-19 | 3926 | 3186 | 0.024577 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 6.66328E-18 | 3951 | 3227 | 0.024046 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 7.01582E-20 | 3951 | 3186 | 0.025408 |
| 5a | Up>Left | 5.77424E-08 | 4396 | 3912 | 0.016075 |
| 5a | Up>Right | 7.26922E-10 | 4396 | 3846 | 0.018267 |
| 5a | Up>Down | 1.92814E-11 | 4396 | 3797 | 0.019894 |
| 5a | Up-Left>Down-Right | 7.05894E-07 | 3748 | 3341 | 0.013518 |
| 5a | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.55112E-08 | 3748 | 3283 | 0.015444 |
| 5a | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 7.16519E-08 | 3786 | 3341 | 0.01478 |
| 5a | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.16368E-09 | 3786 | 3283 | 0.016706 |
| 5b | Up>Left | 7.11644E-42 | 4777 | 3546 | 0.040885 |
| 5b | Down>Left | 3.1861E-09 | 4053 | 3546 | 0.016839 |
| 5b | Up>Right | 2.71209E-48 | 4777 | 3458 | 0.043807 |
| 5b | Up>Down | 6.89235E-15 | 4777 | 4053 | 0.024046 |
| 5b | Down>Right | 3.50623E-12 | 4053 | 3458 | 0.019762 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.01598E-12 | 3894 | 3297 | 0.019828 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 4.55662E-18 | 3894 | 3172 | 0.02398 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 2.31328E-13 | 3912 | 3297 | 0.020426 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 7.60515E-19 | 3912 | 3172 | 0.024577 |
| 7 | Up>Left | 7.94303E-21 | 4376 | 3549 | 0.027467 |
| 7 | Down>Left | 1.13502E-12 | 4166 | 3549 | 0.020492 |
| 7 | Up>Right | 1.46311E-17 | 4376 | 3620 | 0.025109 |
| 7 | Down>Right | 3.22717E-10 | 4166 | 3620 | 0.018134 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.000785899 | 3867 | 3593 | 0.0091 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.97207E-07 | 3867 | 3444 | 0.014049 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 7.23099E-06 | 3867 | 3494 | 0.012388 |
| 7b | Up>Left | 9.0516E-11 | 4284 | 3713 | 0.018964 |
| 7b | Down>Left | 7.61002E-07 | 4140 | 3713 | 0.014182 |
| 7b | Up>Right | 5.38512E-09 | 4284 | 3770 | 0.017071 |
| 7b | Down>Right | 1.66486E-05 | 4140 | 3770 | 0.012289 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.006294714 | 3751 | 3537 | 0.007108 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.26313E-05 | 3751 | 3394 | 0.011857 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 0.003493078 | 3751 | 3520 | 0.007672 |
| 7c | Up>Down | 0.004225802 | 4100 | 3864 | 0.007838 |