| 计算说明(本节列出脚本中用于计算与检验的公式与步骤,便于复现): 1) 概率估计 - 观测计数 A_i 为某类别的观测次数,总试验次数为 N(或在两类比较中为 m = A + B)。 - 类别的估计概率: p_hat = A / N (若只比较两类,则条件概率 p_hat = A / m)。 2) Wilson 置信区间(用于单个类别概率的置信区间,双侧) - 给定显著性水平 alpha(双侧),先计算 z = Phi^{-1}(1 - alpha/2)。 - 设 p_hat = A / N, denom = 1 + z^2 / N center = p_hat + z^2 / (2N) rad = z * sqrt( p_hat*(1-p_hat)/N + z^2/(4N^2) ) 下界 lower = (center - rad) / denom 上界 upper = (center + rad) / denom - 区间被截断到 [0,1]。 3) 两类显著性比较(用于判断 A > B) - 只看落在 A 或 B 的样本,令 m = A + B。 - 在原假设 H0: p_A = p_B(条件下 p = 0.5)下,A ~ Binomial(m, 0.5)。 - 使用精确二项检验(binomtest)做单侧检验:H1: p_A > 0.5(即 A 的条件概率大于 B)。 - 得到单侧 p_value(脚本中称为原始 p_value)。 4) 多重比较校正(组内 Bonferroni) - 在同一组(例如门组或某方向子组)内做所有两两比较,若组内共有 T 个两两比较, 则每次检验的显著性阈值设为 alpha_per_test = overall_alpha / T(overall_alpha 默认为 0.05)。 - 仅当单侧 p_value <= alpha_per_test 时,记录显著结论 A>B(或 B>A)。 5) 差值与效应量(使用总样本 N 作为分母) - 在两类比较中,差值定义为: diff_total = (A/N) - (B/N),其中 N 为总样本量。 - 这样差值直接反映在总样本中的概率差异,便于与“误差 ≤1%(按 N 分母)”规则对齐。 - 在结论页中,差值单元格按以下规则着色: <1% → 灰色;1%~2% → 黄色;≥2% → 绿色。 6) 方向比较限制(脚本实现细节) - 方向分为两组:直角组 = {Left, Up, Right, Down};斜角组 = {Up-Left, Up-Right, Down-Right, Down-Left}。 - 仅在组内做两两比较,不跨组比较。 7) 概率统计表(概率统计页) - 每个类别的概率由原始计数除以 Total 得到:Door_X = Door_X_count / Total;Dir_Y = Dir_Y_count / Total。 8) 均值/方差/标准差(均值偏差页) - 组内均值(例如门组): mean = mean(p_i)(忽略为 0 的项以避免 Total=0 的影响)。 - 以百分比形式计算偏差列: (p_i - mean) * 100。 - 方差(%^2)使用样本方差(ddof=0),标准差为方差的平方根(%)。 本页(结论-方向)说明: - 方向被分为两组:直角组(4 个)与斜角组(4 个),每组内分别做两两比较。 - 每组内比较数量均为 T = C(4,2) = 6,组内 Bonferroni 校正 alpha_per_test = 0.05 / 6。 - 仅在组内记录显著结论,格式同上: 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, N分母)。 |
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| 实验编号 | 结论 | p_value | A_count | B_count | 差值(pA-pB, |
| 1 | Down>Left | 5.56267E-06 | 4240 | 3844 | 0.011435 |
| 1 | Down>Up | 0.000577072 | 4240 | 3945 | 0.008518 |
| 1 | Down>Right | 0.002461046 | 4240 | 3984 | 0.007392 |
| 1a | Down>Left | 0.00021224 | 4205 | 3887 | 0.009183 |
| 1a | Down>Up | 0.007294018 | 4205 | 3983 | 0.00641 |
| 1a | Down>Right | 0.004669106 | 4205 | 3969 | 0.006815 |
| 1b | Down>Left | 4.39759E-05 | 4206 | 3853 | 0.010193 |
| 1b | Down>Up | 0.00752966 | 4206 | 3985 | 0.006382 |
| 1c | Left>Up | 1.84336E-07 | 3967 | 3526 | 0.012735 |
| 1c | Left>Right | 3.73897E-06 | 3967 | 3577 | 0.011262 |
| 1c | Down>Up | 3.14232E-12 | 4128 | 3526 | 0.017384 |
| 1c | Down>Right | 1.82394E-10 | 4128 | 3577 | 0.015911 |
| 1c | Up-Left>Up-Right | 1.47821E-05 | 4811 | 4409 | 0.011608 |
| 1c | Down-Left>Up-Left | 7.51256E-06 | 5246 | 4811 | 0.012561 |
| 1c | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 4.62391E-09 | 4966 | 4409 | 0.016084 |
| 1c | Down-Left>Up-Right | 8.45198E-18 | 5246 | 4409 | 0.02417 |
| 1c | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.002880905 | 5246 | 4966 | 0.008085 |
| 1d | Left>Up | 5.5893E-07 | 3950 | 3528 | 0.012186 |
| 1d | Left>Right | 0.000135768 | 3950 | 3632 | 0.009183 |
| 1d | Down>Left | 0.006474137 | 4175 | 3950 | 0.006497 |
| 1d | Down>Up | 8.87964E-14 | 4175 | 3528 | 0.018683 |
| 1d | Down>Right | 4.21552E-10 | 4175 | 3632 | 0.01568 |
| 1d | Up-Left>Up-Right | 0.006565529 | 4685 | 4447 | 0.006873 |
| 1d | Down-Right>Up-Left | 1.92332E-05 | 5093 | 4685 | 0.011782 |
| 1d | Down-Left>Up-Left | 5.83609E-06 | 5120 | 4685 | 0.012561 |
| 1d | Down-Right>Up-Righ | 1.97242E-11 | 5093 | 4447 | 0.018654 |
| 1d | Down-Left>Up-Right | 3.13976E-12 | 5120 | 4447 | 0.019434 |
| 3 | Up>Left | 7.03259E-05 | 4678 | 4316 | 0.010453 |
| 3 | Down>Left | 0.000308772 | 4641 | 4316 | 0.009385 |
| 3 | Up>Right | 0.000478898 | 4678 | 4363 | 0.009096 |
| 3 | Down>Right | 0.00175358 | 4641 | 4363 | 0.008028 |
| 3b | Up>Left | 0.000297609 | 4643 | 4317 | 0.009414 |
| 3b | Down>Left | 0.000467833 | 4631 | 4317 | 0.009067 |
| 3c | Up>Left | 1.10938E-93 | 5372 | 3453 | 0.055414 |
| 3c | Down>Left | 4.83631E-10 | 3981 | 3453 | 0.015247 |
| 3c | Up>Right | 1.1521E-99 | 5372 | 3398 | 0.057003 |
| 3c | Up>Down | 2.61469E-47 | 5372 | 3981 | 0.040167 |
| 3c | Down>Right | 6.06409E-12 | 3981 | 3398 | 0.016835 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Right | 4.0183E-128 | 5834 | 3519 | 0.06685 |
| 3c | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.8579E-141 | 5834 | 3417 | 0.069795 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.8738E-111 | 5656 | 3519 | 0.06171 |
| 3c | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.2864E-123 | 5656 | 3417 | 0.064655 |
| 3d | Left>Down | 6.80114E-06 | 4258 | 3865 | 0.011349 |
| 3d | Up>Down | 2.31641E-07 | 4322 | 3865 | 0.013197 |
| 3d | Right>Down | 0.001631725 | 4129 | 3865 | 0.007623 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Right | 2.33301E-22 | 4987 | 4068 | 0.026538 |
| 3d | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.61628E-19 | 4987 | 4131 | 0.024718 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.14428E-17 | 4870 | 4068 | 0.023159 |
| 3d | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.53936E-15 | 4870 | 4131 | 0.02134 |
| 5 | Up>Left | 3.89686E-60 | 5483 | 3905 | 0.045567 |
| 5 | Down>Left | 6.09407E-14 | 4589 | 3905 | 0.019752 |
| 5 | Up>Right | 2.00186E-47 | 5483 | 4075 | 0.040658 |
| 5 | Up>Down | 2.69843E-19 | 5483 | 4589 | 0.025816 |
| 5 | Down>Right | 1.76473E-08 | 4589 | 4075 | 0.014843 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 1.34732E-18 | 4524 | 3731 | 0.022899 |
| 5 | Up-Left>Down-Left | 5.98858E-23 | 4524 | 3639 | 0.025556 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 1.39235E-25 | 4684 | 3731 | 0.027519 |
| 5 | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.06564E-30 | 4684 | 3639 | 0.030176 |
| 5a | Up>Left | 1.59479E-15 | 5071 | 4307 | 0.022062 |
| 5a | Up>Right | 1.95131E-12 | 5071 | 4395 | 0.019521 |
| 5a | Up>Down | 5.54628E-12 | 5071 | 4409 | 0.019116 |
| 5a | Up-Left>Down-Right | 7.84195E-12 | 4403 | 3792 | 0.017644 |
| 5a | Up-Left>Down-Left | 3.53485E-12 | 4403 | 3782 | 0.017932 |
| 5a | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 4.2358E-14 | 4471 | 3792 | 0.019607 |
| 5a | Up-Right>Down-Left | 1.76038E-14 | 4471 | 3782 | 0.019896 |
| 5b | Up>Left | 6.71705E-65 | 5526 | 3883 | 0.047444 |
| 5b | Down>Left | 5.81732E-18 | 4675 | 3883 | 0.02287 |
| 5b | Up>Right | 5.08003E-56 | 5526 | 3994 | 0.044239 |
| 5b | Up>Down | 1.87194E-17 | 5526 | 4675 | 0.024574 |
| 5b | Down>Right | 1.36514E-13 | 4675 | 3994 | 0.019665 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 8.72686E-22 | 4549 | 3685 | 0.024949 |
| 5b | Up-Left>Down-Left | 1.87746E-24 | 4549 | 3632 | 0.02648 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 3.5998E-28 | 4686 | 3685 | 0.028906 |
| 5b | Up-Right>Down-Left | 3.24528E-31 | 4686 | 3632 | 0.030436 |
| 7 | Up>Left | 6.29799E-16 | 4987 | 4219 | 0.022177 |
| 7 | Down>Left | 4.71238E-11 | 4836 | 4219 | 0.017817 |
| 7 | Up>Right | 8.01962E-20 | 4987 | 4124 | 0.024921 |
| 7 | Down>Right | 2.84144E-14 | 4836 | 4124 | 0.02056 |
| 7 | Up-Left>Down-Right | 3.34515E-05 | 4235 | 3875 | 0.010396 |
| 7 | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 6.31339E-06 | 4270 | 3875 | 0.011406 |
| 7b | Up>Left | 5.6942E-08 | 4845 | 4336 | 0.014698 |
| 7b | Down>Left | 4.8058E-06 | 4759 | 4336 | 0.012215 |
| 7b | Up>Right | 1.26082E-08 | 4845 | 4311 | 0.01542 |
| 7b | Down>Right | 1.3364E-06 | 4759 | 4311 | 0.012937 |
| 7b | Up-Left>Down-Right | 0.000313171 | 4184 | 3876 | 0.008894 |
| 7b | Up-Right>Down-Righ | 0.001072104 | 4152 | 3876 | 0.00797 |
| 7b | Down-Left>Down-Rig | 0.000610482 | 4167 | 3876 | 0.008403 |
| 7c | Right>Left | 0.004364387 | 4781 | 4527 | 0.007335 |